Doors are shut on political opponents
Progress towards internationally accepted democratic norms is proving slow

By David STERN

Three leaders of Kazakhstan's political opposition awoke one morning in March expecting to take part in an officially sanctioned demonstration, a rare occurence in the former Soviet state of 15m people.

But the three were not able to leave their apartments, local television stations and democracy workers reported, because their doors had been cemented shut overnight.

Such "fraternity pranks", as one western official called the incident, are no laughing matter when viewed in terms of Kazakhstan's worsening human rights and democracy record, say defenders of international human rights.

The demonstration itself, in Almaty on the eve of a visit by US secretary of state Madeleine Albright's to focus on human rights and security issues in Central Asian states, was further wrapped in controversy.

One of the country's top television journalists, Tatyana Deltsova, was dismissed from her job after she reported on the cementing story.

Station officials say she was released on personal grounds, but western observers say her firing was linked to the news report. An opposition activist, Sergei Bondartsev, was dragged from an internet cafe and beaten badly a few days before another rally.

Observers say the political situation in the central Asian state has deteriorated steadily since 1996. What used to be considered one of the best hopes for civil society in the former Soviet Union is now described by some as a "submerging democracy".

Opposition newspapers face a number of barriers to print and are often forced to find publishers outside the country.

Independent websites, such as one linked to former prime minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin - President Nursultan Nazarbayev's main political opponent - have been blocked.

And presidential and parliamentary elections last year did not help to bolster confidence in the country's democratic future.

President Nazarbayev used questionable methods to move the voting date and then barred Mr Kazhegeldin, who lives in exile in London, from taking part in the contest. Mr Nazarbayev won a another seven-year term with 80 per cent of the vote.

The parliamentary vote followed a similar pattern. International observers estimate that more than half of parliament's lower house, the Majlis, would not have been elected if the vote had been free and fair.

"The government needs to see the political opposition not as enemies, but as opponents," says a EU official. At the same time, opposition - for the most part focused on the person of Mr Kazhegeldin - remains weak.

Mr Kazhegeldin, who led the government from 1994-1997, nonetheless remains a nuisance for authorities here. He is wanted in his home country on a range of charges including tax evasion, money laundering and holding illegal property abroad.

He denies all charges. In July, he was detained at Rome's Leonardo da Vinci airport on instructions from Kazakh officials, but released soon after.

Others, however, see the former prime minister as tarred with the same brush of economic hardship and perceived corruption as other members of the government and question his ability to appeal to a wide electorate.

The Kazakh leadership emphasises that Kazakhstan is building an open, democratic society, albeit at its own pace. "We accept criticism from our partners but democracy cannot be set up here overnight," the prime minister, Kasymzhomart Tokayev, said earlier this year.

"For Western countries, it took many years, so in eight years here it is absolutely impossible."

At the same time, the president strikes a note of defiance. "As I indicated to Mrs. Albright during her visit, we will not hitch up our trousers to run after the US. We do not accept any criticism of our democratic record or our domestic policies," Mr Nazarbayev said not long after meeting with the US secretary of state.

Some observers agree that it is unreasonable to expect a western-style democracy in a country that is barely acquainted with representative government and only recently came into existence.

They also say that, compared to other countries in the region, Kazakhstan is mild in dealing with political opponents. "This is not a country where people are hung up by their toenails," says a top western diplomat.

Kazakhstan's greatest political challenge will probably occur when the 60-year-old Mr Nazarbayev finally decides to step down. In June, the Kazakh leader was granted special powers for life, allowing him to participate in government affairs after he retires and protecting him from any kind of prosecution.

But Mr Nazarbayev shows no signs of poor health or wanting to leave office. He has hinted at a third seven-year term when his current term expires in 2006, but restrictions in the constitution may bar his path. He also remains for the most part a popular leader.

Nevertheless, observers have already begun discussing possible candidates as potential successors. So far the name most frequently mentioned is Rashad Aliyev, Mr Nazarbayev's son-in-law and deputy head of state security. The president remains silent on the issue, however.

But fears of a chaotic post-Nazarbayev period persist, even with a designated successor. "A government as resistant to democratic reform as this one is, is not going to be stable," says a western expert.